The preliminary Uniform Crime Reports are in for 2009, and the results are promising. Murder is down 10%, robberies are down 6.5%, and motor vehicle thefts are oddly down 18.7%. As many in our camp have pointed out, this takes place during an unprecedented year-long surge in firearms ownership. According to NICS, there are at least 25 million more guns in circulation than there were before the election.
The obvious conclusion is that more guns do not equal more crime.
However, this does not mean there is a direct relationship between increased firearms ownership and this drastic decline in crime. Without more data, causality would be difficult to prove, so that’s probably a point best avoided in debate for now.
Take the Brady Campaign. Violent crime began to fall during the early 1990’s and continued to do so for the remainder of the decade. They claimed that the Brady Bill and the Assault Weapons Ban were responsible, which was a bit disingenuous, since both factors entered halfway through the decline.
In 2004, Steven Levitt published a paper analyzing the drop in crime, and he agreed that gun control was a non-issue. He found no significant influence from concealed carry, either, which does make a bit of sense. In the 1990’s, it was still a new phenomenon in many areas, so not many people were carrying at the time.
One of the factors he does consider relevant is crack cocaine. After spreading like wildfire through the late 1980’s, its popularity dwindled. By the mid-1990’s, users were either dead, in prison, or recovering. This would account for much of the drop in violence at the time.
We could be seeing the same issue now, but with crystal methamphetamine. There have been successful initiatives, both in legislatures and law enforcement, to reduce its use. Raw materials for the drug, once easily available in drug stores, are now heavily controlled. As such, it is no longer cheap or easy to produce, and the main supply is imported and expensive.
Regardless of the cause, we can take heart from these numbers. There has been no major gun-control legislation to which our opponents can give credit for the fall in crime. Furthermore, despite a tremendous influx of new guns into the hands of the citizenry, mayhem has failed to ensue.
I’m good with that.