On Referendums

The Republicans are looking to pick up six or more seats in the Senate tonight. Mitch McConnell looks to be winning in Kentucky, and he’ll probably replace Harry Reid as majority leader.

Tomorrow morning, the Republicans are going to be basking in optimism and satisfaction. That would be a tremendous mistake. They need to have viable plans in place right now, or they’ll be back in the wilderness in two years.

Pundits are calling this election a referendum on the President and his policies. That’s not the case. If anything, that would have been the 2010 election. The “take back our country” rhetoric and tricorner hats won Republicans a few seats, but the Tea Party forked the message and turned their narrow majority into a tool for little more than squabbling obstructionism. They seemed to think the public didn’t notice.

Next came claims they’d take the White House in 2012. That didn’t happen. Presidential candidates bickered among themselves over who was more conservative and did little else. When the dust settled, they were left with Mitt Romney. Tea Party freshmen in the House lost seats. In New York and New Hampshire, they lost their seats back to the Democrats they’d unseated in 2010.

They were left with just enough votes to force one government shutdown and threaten another. They’ve little else to show for their work.

This year, they seem more focused, but their victory will be transitory at best.

Their first problem is the electoral map. States like Ohio, California, and Arizona aren’t in play. Many of the seats in danger are in states already leaning conservative. We’ll be looking at a different set of Senate elections in 2016.

Second, the Republicans face an uphill battle, even if they win. The President still has the veto pen, and he’s not up for reelection in 2016. He can stick to his guns and go out whimpering that he tried but the Republicans held him back. While Bill Clinton learned to work with the Republicans after the 1996 upset, Barack Obama has shown no such willingness. Frankly, they haven’t done much to earn his cooperation.

Third, two years is a short time, and the stakes are high. Public approval ratings for Congress the last three years are so abysmal as to be…well, abysmal. If this election is about anything, it’s about giving someone else the chance to possibly get something done. Let’s not mistake that for a vote of confidence.

Finally, we have the 2016 problem. The Democrats are going to run Hillary Clinton in 2016. We can make all the fun we want, but she’s got recognition, money, and backing. The Democratic party will be united behind her. There will be one core message.

If the last two Presidential elections are any indication, the Republicans will be divided and quarrelsome. They will have little to show for the last grudging chance the electorate gives them tonight, and it won’t be pretty. They need to get something done (the Keystone XL pipeline would be a good suggestion) and they need to find a Presidential candidate who’s not a complete bonehead.

I’m still not convinced they have that much sense.